IMPACT OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE ON EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE POIPLIE AREA
 
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Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava
Publication date: 2015-03-30
 
Acta Sci. Pol. Formatio Circumiectus 2015;14(1):85–97
 
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ABSTRACT
This paper is aimed to assess the impact of climate change on water regime of wetland in the area of Poiplie Ramsar site. To simulate the climate change the CGCM3.1 global model (SRES A2 pessimistic scenario and SRES B1 optimistic scenario) and KNMI and MPI regional models were selected as the most appropriate. For the 20-year reference period the years 1977–1996 was chosen, which is within the evaluation compared with the 20-year time horizons 2020, 2050 and 2080. Simulation of soil water regime was carried out using the GLOBAL model. Within the soil water regime evaluation actual evapotranspiration was evaluated in this paper. Actual evapotranspiration has in the future in the studied area also increasing course over the reference period, while the SRES A2 pessimistic scenario expected the increase of 24%, KNMI regional model the increase of 21% and SRES B1 optimistic scenario and MPI regional model the increase of 19%. The development of actual evapotranspiration is derived from the predicted increase in air temperature and precipitation. On the base of these results the ongoing climate change does not cause dramatic changes in Poiplie Ramsar site, thereby this unique wetland ecosystem should be preserved in the future.
ISSN:1644-0765