RESEARCH PAPER
Assessing the impact of agricultural gross output growth on GHG emission intensity: Evidence from analysis of structural factors
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1
Agricultural Research Center, Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Baku, Azerbaijan
2
Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Baku, Azerbaijan
Submission date: 2026-01-06
Final revision date: 2026-02-23
Acceptance date: 2026-03-03
Publication date: 2026-07-07
Corresponding author
Ramil Huseyn
Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Baku, Azerbaijan
Acta Sci. Pol. Formatio Circumiectus 2026;25(2):35-50
HIGHLIGHTS
- Agricultural output growth affects GHG intensity depending on the role of TFP
- Weak productivity growth increases land-based emission intensity
- Higher TFP reduces GHG intensity and supports sustainable growth
- Trade effects on global emissions differ across country types
- Productivity-led livestock growth may balance food security and climate goals
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ABSTRACT
Aim of the study:
This study assesses the intensity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in agriculture, focusing on the effects of changes in both the dynamics and structural composition of agricultural gross output growth. The analysis aims to identify conditions under which a favorable balance can be achieved between socio-economic efficiency and environmental sustainability within the agricultural sector.
Material and methods:
Utilizing time-series linear regression models, the study investigates how variations in gross agricultural output, total factor productivity (TFP), and the relative contributions of the livestock and crop subsectors influence GHG emission intensity.
Results and conclusions:
The empirical results indicate that accelerated growth in TFP consistently reduces emissions per unit of gross agricultural output, while its effect on emissions per hectare of agricultural land depends on structural growth factors. The findings further suggest that GHG emissions per hectare only decline when the share of TFP within the structure of growth sources substantially exceed a certain threshold. Conversely, changes in the share of the livestock sector in agricultural output growth influence both indicators of emission intensity in the same direction. Expanding scope of study on this issue led to a conclusion that the national-level assessments of agricultural GHG emission intensity should take into account the country’s position in international trade in livestock products and the comparative GHG emission intensity levels of its main trading partners.