RESEARCH PAPER
Critical comments on the assessment of the loss of the capacity of key dam reservoirs in Poland
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Uniwersytet Rolniczy w Krakowie
Submission date: 2025-12-17
Final revision date: 2026-02-10
Acceptance date: 2026-03-05
Publication date: 2026-05-26
Acta Sci. Pol. Formatio Circumiectus 2026;25(1):101-112
HIGHLIGHTS
- a higher silting degree means a smaller linear forecast error
- a mean silting degree means a longer reservoir operation time
- Gončarov's formula gives a value 26 to 77% hig .
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ABSTRACT
Aim of the study:
1) demonstrate the validity of the Gončarov formula for forecasting the capacity loss of dam reservoirs in relation to the results of analyses presented in the publication "Loss of the capacity of key dam reservoirs in Poland" prepared by Absalon et al. (2022), 2) presentation of critical comments on the results of analyses and "assessment of the loss of capacity of 47 water reservoirs key for water management in Poland" presented by Absalon et al. (2022), 3) demonstrate that the "average annual silting rate" cannot be the basis for developing a correct silting forecast.
Material and methods:
Based on the results of silting measurements of 20 dam reservoirs and the results of calculations and analyses presented in the publication by Absalon et al. (2022), a forecast of the reduction of the capacity of these reservoirs was developed using the Gončarov equation, recommended by the instructional guidelines for silting forecasting (Wiśniewski and Kutrowski, 1973).
Results and conclusions:
The forecasted time of capacity reduction for the analyzed reservoirs presented in the publication by Absalon et al. (2022) is underestimated, even compared to the time calculated based on the assumed linear nature of the silting process. The time of capacity reduction to 50% of the original capacity of the analyzed reservoirs, calculated using Gončarov's formula, is 26 to 77% longer than that given in the paper by Absalon et al. (2022). Using the mean annual silting ratio to forecast silting is inappropriate and subject to error, resulting in an underestimation of the silting time.